England

30th August Picks

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Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim @2.15

This one isn’t straight forward, and is based predominantly on the performance of Hoffenheim last week and the strength of their attacking line compared to Bremen. Werder came back into their game against Hertha to draw 2-2, but they weren’t convincing and another slow start this weekend could again be punished. Hoffenheim, in general, will create more chances than Bremen and I expect Szalai, Volland and Firmino in particular to be more dangerous throughout. Over 2.5 goals is likely, but a predictably poor price.

(Confidence 6/10)

Watford @1.80 vs Huddersfield

Huddersfield are improving after a chaotic start. They managed an impressive away win at Reading and a draw against Charlton. However, I’ve been impressed with Watford, and on their day can look very good going forward. They had a blip when they lost away to Norwich, but apart from that they’ve been in top form and scoring plenty of goals. Last week Watford smashed Leeds 4-1, having 21 shots and their opponents having none on target 4 in total. Forestieri looked very good, along with Deeney who has just committed his future to the club, plus they have the likes of Vydra to come in. If the home side win, it could easily be by 2 goals, thus I would strongly consider Watford -1 @2.90.

(Confidence 8/10)

Colchester vs Peterborough @2.40

Peterborough, aside from a slip in a tough game against Sheffield United, have had a good start tot he season, winning their other 3 league games. Colchester’s games have been reasonably close, but they have only come away from their first 4 games with 1 point. Its possible for the home side to get a result here, but the price being offered on the away side, who sit second in the table, seems too good. I’m yet to see anyone backing Colchester in this game.

(Confidence 7/10)

Cheltenham @2.10 vs Hartlepool

The home side are unbeaten on 10 points, with some good results under their belt so far, and are up against a Hartlepool team who have lost 3 and won 1. Their win last weekend was a good one against AFC Wimbledon, but I think they will struggle to come away with points away from home for the second consecutive game. The odds seem good on the home team here, and were most probably boosted by a surprise 2-1 win for their opponents last weekend, but the gap in quality still seemingly remains.

(Confidence 7/10)

Bury @1.70 vs Accrington

Bury had a reasonably tough opening day fixture against Cheltenham, which they lost 1-0, but have since turned their fortunes around and sit on 7 points following wins against Hartlepool and Plymouth. Both teams have drawn against Luton, but Accrington have lost their other 3 games and lie second bottom in the table. The home side should have the quality to see them off here.

(Confidence 8/10)

Portsmouth @2.10 vs Newport

The home side look in great form, winning their last 3. Newport, although having played reasonably tough fixtures so far, look pretty poor and understandably sit hovering around the bottom of the table despite a respectable draw against Burton last time out. Playing at home, I would expect Portsmouth to continue their good run of form here and take all 3 points, maybe not by a huge margin, but better than evens appears to be a good price here.

(Confidence 7/10)

23rd August Picks

Published on by firstgoalscorer

Bit late posting this, but here are my picks for this Saturday. Difficult weekend, lots of top teams playing each other throughout England, but there are a few good ones from what I can see.

 

Swindon @1.80 vs Crewe

Swindon have had a reasonable start to the season, but Crewe have been very poor and are notably bad at the County Ground losing convincingly in the last three seasons or so. Swindon has a win against Scunthorpe, a narrow loss to Crawley away from home and a draw against rivals Gillingham. Crewe are yet to get off the points mark and should struggle away from home here – @1.80 seems generous

(confidence 7/10)

Yeovil @2.15 vs Scunthorpe

Slightly more risky one, both teams haven’t been particularly good but Yeovil have a decent away win at Walsall on their books from midweek whereas Scunthorpe look very poor and are yet to get off the mark points-wise. With home advantage, I back Yeovil here against a lowly Scunthorpe side that really don’t seem up for a battle at the moment.

(confidence 6/10)

Nottingham Forest @1.95 vs Reading

Forest look strong, with a really good win against Bournemouth in their last game. They drew against Bolton away and won their opener against Blackpool and have been playing good football and Assombolonga looks very good and threatening in front of goal. Reading have been inconsistent, and lost in their last game to struggling Huddersfield at home which was surprising. I think they’ll struggle here against an in-form Forest side.

(confidence 8/10)

Hoffenheim @2.00 vs Augsburg

Hoffenheim actually have a really strong squad, I like the options they have going forward. Szalai is a very good signing, someone who I think can be excellent and powerful up front or out wide on his day. They’ve kept Volland and Firmino who should provide great threat going forward. Their defence is suspect after the carnage we saw last season, but i don’t think Augsburg have the incisive edge to outscore Hoffenheim here. Its hard with opening games of the season, but I really think evens offers great value on a talented Hoffenheim side against Augsburg who you could say have been slightly punching above their weight in recent times.

(confidence 8/10)

 

My picks are available via oddsportal as usual here.

16th August Picks

Published on by firstgoalscorer

Blackpool vs Blackburn (@1.80)

Blackpool’s troubles off the field have been well documented, with their depleted squad and lack of preparation time. Although they are not totally written off, it will be tough for them to compete against a decent looking Blackburn side who will be eager to bounce back after their poor midweek display in the cup. They have the quality, particularly through Rhodes up top, to perform well away from home against struggling sides despite an average start to the season. A tough first day fixture against Cardiff is difficult go by, but Rovers looked decent, and their surprising midweek cup loss was suffered with a second-rate team on the pitch after rotation.

Confidence (7/10)

 

Bournemouth (@1.9) vs Brentford

Bournemouth were fantastic last weekend against Huddersfield and looked like their can certainly capture some of the form that they saw last season. They also won to-nil in midweek in the cup and will look to excite the fans this weekend as they run out in front of the home crowd at Dean Court. Newly promoted Brentford could struggle away at the early league leaders, despite picking up a draw in the opening fixture, struggled slightly at home in that game with Charlton – picking up a late equaliser. They also had a midweek thriller with Dagenham & Redbridge which ended 6-6 AET and a win on pens, which would have taken its toll on the side. I would expect Eddie Howe’s Bournemouth side to go in and score goals here, in what should be a confident performance.

(Confidence 8/10)

 

Cardiff (@1.80) vs Huddersfield

Cardiff drew against Blackburn on the opening day, but look in decent shape to be candidates for promotion this season. Conversely, Huddersfield suffered a shock 4-0 defeat last weekend, and sacked their manager after only 1 game. They managed an extra time victory in the cup midweek against Chesterfield, although conceded 3 in the process. Home advantage for Solskjaer’s Cardiff side should ensure three points, and you would expect them to score at least a couple of goals. They have an impressive squad and will go into their first home game of the season with optimism.

(Confidence 7/10)

 

Bristol City (@1.70) vs Colchester

Despite losing in the cup in midweek, Bristol City will be in high spirits in front of their home fans on Saturday, after an impressive opening day victory over Sheffield United. Colchester managed a 2-2 draw at home to Oldham in their opening game, but slumped to a 4-0 defeat in the cup. We wait to see how well they will do on their travels this season, but Aston Gate is not where they will be wanting to go this weekend. City look the stronger side and I would expect their midfield to dominate, along with Elliot, Wilbraham and Baldock threatening.

(Confidence 8/10)

 

Barnet (@1.95) vs Lincoln

Barnet look very strong this season, and opening their campaign with 5-0 and 2-0 wins against Chester and Bristol Rovers respectively. John Akinde and Charlie MacDonald both know where the goal is, as Barnet will be looking to score more goals in front of their home crowd against Lincoln. The away side drew 0-0 against Kidderminster on the opening day, and subsequently gained a 2-1 victory over lowly Altrincham in midweek. They will have their work cut out to take anything away from Barnet who look to have an extremely impressive conference side this season.

(Confidence 8/10)

 

Doncaster (@evens) vs Port Vale

Doncaster will be promotion candidates this season, as they look to go straight back up following their disappointing campaign last year. They started off this season in the best possible way, with an opening day victory away at Yeovil, as well as cup success away to York in midweek. Their attacking force look particularly threatening, and they will be favourites to add to their goal tally int heir first home game of the new season here. Port Vale’s away form has been inconsistent at best in the past year or so, and they will be wary of an in-form Doncaster side. However, they do have quality of their own, and despite a 1-1 draw to Walsall on the opening day, they come into the game at the Keepmoat off the back of a 6-2 cup win over Hartlepool in midweek. I would expect home advantage to edge it here for Doncaster.

(Confidence 6/10)

English Leagues Pre-Season Handicaps

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Premiership

(Tottenham +17; Chelsea +1; Newcastle +34)

Spurs slightly underperformed at times last season, finished 6th, but only 17 points off the leaders after 38 games. They had changes in management to deal with and had  a few bad patches – notably a poor November and a tough set of fixtures in March cost them. This year they should be able to build under a new manager who had a great season at Southampton, and will probably bring in another signing or two before the window shuts. They should be a it more solid defensively and will hopefully be able to use their attacking midfielders to create more opportunities in front of goal. Lamela, in particular, looks good in pre-season which is a boost to them. I think they will struggle to make top four because of their struggles to beat City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, United… but I think they will close the gap and +17 might be good value.

Chelsea have improved their starting eleven this summer with the introduction of Fabregas, Diego Costa, Felipe Luis and the return of Courtois. Mourinho admitted that they are now title contenders, and he will want to push City all the way. He bases his success on defence and the consistency of getting results at home. Now they have the threat of Costa up top as well – someone who can score goals even when the team aren’t creating too many clear cut chances. Chelsea are only +1 handicap from City’s scratch, but could be a pretty solid pick as they should be aiming for 85-90 points. Liverpool would have been the ones to spoil the party last season, and are +9 this time, but their loss of Suarez leaves obvious question marks over whether they can score the same level of goals and really challenge for 80+ points after 38 games.

Newcastle would be the slight gamble, and although +34 is a big handicap value, you’d probably be relying on them getting ‘the best of the rest’ in about 8th come the end of the season. Bare in mind the title winners should be on around 90, Newcastle have to better 56 which was Southampton’s point total in 8th last season. However… their signings look good in pre-season – Cabella, de Jong and Riviere. I think Pardew’s side will be strong at home, but my doubts would be over their defence. Even so, I think if they do have a good season, which many people are tipping them for, they could be the highest team to eat up the big handicap gap from the top 7 teams, with their +34 from scratch start.

Championship

(Wigan +4; Reading +12; Blackburn +10)

With the lower league handicaps more bunched up than the Premiership, I would go for more solid choices of teams who expect to be in and around Playoffs and promotion and wont want to fall far behind the leaders. Wigan, Reading and Blackburn are all clubs in this kind of mindset and are pretty experienced and good teams at fighting for Premiership football. Blackburn turned their fortunes around towards the latter stages of last season and will be looking to keep up momentum. Jordan Rhodes is the main man, and his goal threat could be the key, plus the arrival of Chris Brown. Reading are perhaps an outside choice as they have some squad rebuilding to do, particularly after losing top scorer Le Fondre to rivals Cardiff. But they’ve signed Simon Cox from Forest and Jamie Mackie on loan, and Nigel Adkins will be confident they can challenge for a decent playoff place. +10 and +12 for these two sides seem like good value, and you’d expect one of them to put up a fight for automatic promotion and the gap at the top could be close. Wigan will have no European distraction, and have a good manager in Uwe Rosler who will be determined to gain automatic promotion after missing out in the playoffs to QPR last season. They need to be better in the attacking department, but have shown intent by signing Riera from Osasuna. +4 is short, but they will be looking at fighting all the way for automatic promotion.

League 1 & 2

(Preston +5; Southend +10; Plymouth +11; Burton +9)

Both Leagues very tough to call, not too many solid picks, although for League 1 I would say Preston. They seem a very reasonable bet for the playoffs, but beyond that it depends on whether they really want to push on – particularly keeping in mind their poor playoff record. Joe Garner could be the difference again this season in the goalscoring department. Handicaps are close in League 1 and its tough to see to many gaps emerging in the table, hence why I would avoid. Probably would have gone for Orient after narrowly missing out in the playoff final after finishing 3rd in the league, but their lack of real transfer activity & handicap of +7 isn’t tempting me.

In terms of League 2, its seemingly well up for grabs. I think the value is in the teams around +10. Southend had a solid season last year, finishing 5th and narrowly losing out to Burton in the playoff semi. Their major advantage is the experience and quality of the manager Phil Brown, and now he has the chance to show what his side can do after having time to build the squad. Plymouth also look decent value, and their fans will expect a push for a playoff place at minimum, particularly after securing Reuben Reid on a permanent basis. Probably an outside and slightly risky pick, but there was acknowledgement from the manager that the squad needed to improve for this coming season, and changes are being made this summer, with the intent to push up the League and improve on their 10th place last season. Other notable mentions to Dagenham at +18 who were decent in spells last season, ending up 9th and in particular Burton at +9 who narrowly missed out on promotion in the final against Fleetwood last season and lost in the semis the year before.

 

Premiership Review 2013/14

Published on by firstgoalscorer

premtoty

Title Winners – Manchester City (86 points)

Top Scorer – Luis Suarez (31 goals)

Champions League qualification – Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal

Europa League qualification – Everton, Tottenham, Hull

Relegation – Norwich, Fulham, Cardiff

 

Pre-season odds in August 2013:

Title winners – Man City @9/4, Chelsea @9/4, Man United @5/2, Arsenal @10/1, Liverpool @25/1

Relegation – Crystal Palace @4/7, Hull @5/7, Cardiff @9/5, Norwich @5/2, Fulham @6/1

Selected top goalscorers – Suarez @18/1, Aguero @12/1

 

The surprise package of the Premiership season has undoubtedly been Liverpool, with Brendan Rodgers showing that he can build a side that is more than capable of sustaining a title challenge right up until the end. Suarez was obviously the main man and grabbed the majority of the headlines, but the impressive nature of which Liverpool managed to involve a wider variety of attacking talent was key. Coutinho, Sterling, Sturridge, Gerrard all had exceptional seasons.

 

Another talking point will obviously be the struggles of David Moyes and his inability to continue the tradition of taking Manchester United into the Champions League. A seventh place finish was pretty inconceivable before the season kicked off, and even finishing outside the top four would have got you 7/1 back in August. But lacklustre performances and an especially poor home record were factors in proving that no-one gets a free pass into European competition these days.

 

I was impressed by the consistency of Southampton again this season. They had good quality in all areas of the pitch, with the likes of Lallana, Shaw, Schneiderlin, Lovren and Rodriguez all maintaining their high level of performance. They had a tricky patch around November/December time, but managed to come out the other side without ever really looking in danger. Everton also had a very good season, and were very much in the frame for Champions League football at one stage. Lukaku, Coleman, Jagielka, McCarthy have all been excellent. They were 7/2 to finish in the top 6 at the start of the season.

 

Other notable achievements included the ability of Crystal Palace and Sunderland to avoid the drop. Tony Pulis worked wonders since his arrival and completely turned around the fortunes of Palace – a side looking destined for relegation before he took over in Novemeber, to a mid-table finish. Sunderland were cut adrift approaching the final few weeks, after a run of 8 losses and 2 draws in 10 games. But they mustered a last push for safety, with 4 wins on the bounce including away victories over Chelsea and Man United to avoid Championship football next season.

 

No-one in the bottom half of the table had particularly inspiring season over the course of the 38 games. I think Newcastle fans will look at the second half of the season they had and will feel lucky to have finished in 10th place. Swansea were in danger of getting sucked into the relegation fight at one point, but Wilfried Bony played a big part in keeping his side in mid-table mediocrity.

 

The battle at the top resulted in a slightly last-gasp title deciding final day, which Manchester City won. However, Liverpool did themselves no favours by losing their 3-0 lead to Crystal Palace the week before, effectively putting the title fight fully out of their hands. Both City and Liverpool finished the League season having scored over 100 goals each, but ultimately City prevailed. They appear to have the best squad in the league, and with the ‘spine’ of Kompany, Toure, Silva and Aguero they look capable of picking up points anywhere.

 

Chelsea and Arsenal both fell short of the race for the title, with the Blues caught up in a Champions League campaign at the sharp end of the season. Their ability to draw 0-0 against any of the big sides probably didn’t win Mourinho any fans from the neutral contingent, but it was probably the losses against Villa, Palace and Sunderland that ultimately did for their hopes of lifting the Premiership title. Arsenal, after going on a dodgy run in which they almost surrendered 4th place when losing Everton, managed to finish on a high by securing Champions League football (playoff) and lifting the FA Cup.

 

Individual awards:

FWA, PFA and Premier League Player of the Year: Luis Suarez (Liverpool)

PFA Young Player of the Year: Eden Hazard (Chelsea)

Barclays Manager of the Season : Tony Pulis (Crystal Palace)

LMA Manager of the Year : Brendan Rodgers (Liverpool)

 

Statistics:

Total goals: 1052

Penalties scored: 73

Clean sheets: 232

Goals per 90 mins: Sergio Aguero (0.99), Luis Suarez (0.94), Daniel Sturridge (0.83)

Pass completion: Mathieu Flamini (93.17%), Laurent Koscielny (92.45%), Per Mertesacker (92.38%), Mousa Dembele (91.60%), John Terry (91.57%)

Completed passes per 90 mins: Yaya Toure (70.89), Michael Carrick (70.00), Jose Canas (69.73), Aaron Ramsey (68.53), David Silva (67.06)

Completed final 3rd passes per 90 mins: Mesut Ozil (30.58 – 81.86% completion), David Silva (29.53 – 78.67% completion), Samir Nasri (23.69 – 81.58% completion)

Save %: Vito Mannone (77.51%), Petr Cech (77.14%), Adrian (76.11%)

Matches per clean sheet: Artur Boruc (2.07), Petr Cech (2.13), Wojciech Szczesny (2.31)