Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim @2.15
This one isn’t straight forward, and is based predominantly on the performance of Hoffenheim last week and the strength of their attacking line compared to Bremen. Werder came back into their game against Hertha to draw 2-2, but they weren’t convincing and another slow start this weekend could again be punished. Hoffenheim, in general, will create more chances than Bremen and I expect Szalai, Volland and Firmino in particular to be more dangerous throughout. Over 2.5 goals is likely, but a predictably poor price.
(Confidence 6/10)
Watford @1.80 vs Huddersfield
Huddersfield are improving after a chaotic start. They managed an impressive away win at Reading and a draw against Charlton. However, I’ve been impressed with Watford, and on their day can look very good going forward. They had a blip when they lost away to Norwich, but apart from that they’ve been in top form and scoring plenty of goals. Last week Watford smashed Leeds 4-1, having 21 shots and their opponents having none on target 4 in total. Forestieri looked very good, along with Deeney who has just committed his future to the club, plus they have the likes of Vydra to come in. If the home side win, it could easily be by 2 goals, thus I would strongly consider Watford -1 @2.90.
(Confidence 8/10)
Colchester vs Peterborough @2.40
Peterborough, aside from a slip in a tough game against Sheffield United, have had a good start tot he season, winning their other 3 league games. Colchester’s games have been reasonably close, but they have only come away from their first 4 games with 1 point. Its possible for the home side to get a result here, but the price being offered on the away side, who sit second in the table, seems too good. I’m yet to see anyone backing Colchester in this game.
(Confidence 7/10)
Cheltenham @2.10 vs Hartlepool
The home side are unbeaten on 10 points, with some good results under their belt so far, and are up against a Hartlepool team who have lost 3 and won 1. Their win last weekend was a good one against AFC Wimbledon, but I think they will struggle to come away with points away from home for the second consecutive game. The odds seem good on the home team here, and were most probably boosted by a surprise 2-1 win for their opponents last weekend, but the gap in quality still seemingly remains.
(Confidence 7/10)
Bury @1.70 vs Accrington
Bury had a reasonably tough opening day fixture against Cheltenham, which they lost 1-0, but have since turned their fortunes around and sit on 7 points following wins against Hartlepool and Plymouth. Both teams have drawn against Luton, but Accrington have lost their other 3 games and lie second bottom in the table. The home side should have the quality to see them off here.
(Confidence 8/10)
Portsmouth @2.10 vs Newport
The home side look in great form, winning their last 3. Newport, although having played reasonably tough fixtures so far, look pretty poor and understandably sit hovering around the bottom of the table despite a respectable draw against Burton last time out. Playing at home, I would expect Portsmouth to continue their good run of form here and take all 3 points, maybe not by a huge margin, but better than evens appears to be a good price here.
(Confidence 7/10)