Premiership
(Tottenham +17; Chelsea +1; Newcastle +34)
Spurs slightly underperformed at times last season, finished 6th, but only 17 points off the leaders after 38 games. They had changes in management to deal with and had a few bad patches – notably a poor November and a tough set of fixtures in March cost them. This year they should be able to build under a new manager who had a great season at Southampton, and will probably bring in another signing or two before the window shuts. They should be a it more solid defensively and will hopefully be able to use their attacking midfielders to create more opportunities in front of goal. Lamela, in particular, looks good in pre-season which is a boost to them. I think they will struggle to make top four because of their struggles to beat City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, United… but I think they will close the gap and +17 might be good value.
Chelsea have improved their starting eleven this summer with the introduction of Fabregas, Diego Costa, Felipe Luis and the return of Courtois. Mourinho admitted that they are now title contenders, and he will want to push City all the way. He bases his success on defence and the consistency of getting results at home. Now they have the threat of Costa up top as well – someone who can score goals even when the team aren’t creating too many clear cut chances. Chelsea are only +1 handicap from City’s scratch, but could be a pretty solid pick as they should be aiming for 85-90 points. Liverpool would have been the ones to spoil the party last season, and are +9 this time, but their loss of Suarez leaves obvious question marks over whether they can score the same level of goals and really challenge for 80+ points after 38 games.
Newcastle would be the slight gamble, and although +34 is a big handicap value, you’d probably be relying on them getting ‘the best of the rest’ in about 8th come the end of the season. Bare in mind the title winners should be on around 90, Newcastle have to better 56 which was Southampton’s point total in 8th last season. However… their signings look good in pre-season – Cabella, de Jong and Riviere. I think Pardew’s side will be strong at home, but my doubts would be over their defence. Even so, I think if they do have a good season, which many people are tipping them for, they could be the highest team to eat up the big handicap gap from the top 7 teams, with their +34 from scratch start.
Championship
(Wigan +4; Reading +12; Blackburn +10)
With the lower league handicaps more bunched up than the Premiership, I would go for more solid choices of teams who expect to be in and around Playoffs and promotion and wont want to fall far behind the leaders. Wigan, Reading and Blackburn are all clubs in this kind of mindset and are pretty experienced and good teams at fighting for Premiership football. Blackburn turned their fortunes around towards the latter stages of last season and will be looking to keep up momentum. Jordan Rhodes is the main man, and his goal threat could be the key, plus the arrival of Chris Brown. Reading are perhaps an outside choice as they have some squad rebuilding to do, particularly after losing top scorer Le Fondre to rivals Cardiff. But they’ve signed Simon Cox from Forest and Jamie Mackie on loan, and Nigel Adkins will be confident they can challenge for a decent playoff place. +10 and +12 for these two sides seem like good value, and you’d expect one of them to put up a fight for automatic promotion and the gap at the top could be close. Wigan will have no European distraction, and have a good manager in Uwe Rosler who will be determined to gain automatic promotion after missing out in the playoffs to QPR last season. They need to be better in the attacking department, but have shown intent by signing Riera from Osasuna. +4 is short, but they will be looking at fighting all the way for automatic promotion.
League 1 & 2
(Preston +5; Southend +10; Plymouth +11; Burton +9)
Both Leagues very tough to call, not too many solid picks, although for League 1 I would say Preston. They seem a very reasonable bet for the playoffs, but beyond that it depends on whether they really want to push on – particularly keeping in mind their poor playoff record. Joe Garner could be the difference again this season in the goalscoring department. Handicaps are close in League 1 and its tough to see to many gaps emerging in the table, hence why I would avoid. Probably would have gone for Orient after narrowly missing out in the playoff final after finishing 3rd in the league, but their lack of real transfer activity & handicap of +7 isn’t tempting me.
In terms of League 2, its seemingly well up for grabs. I think the value is in the teams around +10. Southend had a solid season last year, finishing 5th and narrowly losing out to Burton in the playoff semi. Their major advantage is the experience and quality of the manager Phil Brown, and now he has the chance to show what his side can do after having time to build the squad. Plymouth also look decent value, and their fans will expect a push for a playoff place at minimum, particularly after securing Reuben Reid on a permanent basis. Probably an outside and slightly risky pick, but there was acknowledgement from the manager that the squad needed to improve for this coming season, and changes are being made this summer, with the intent to push up the League and improve on their 10th place last season. Other notable mentions to Dagenham at +18 who were decent in spells last season, ending up 9th and in particular Burton at +9 who narrowly missed out on promotion in the final against Fleetwood last season and lost in the semis the year before.