12th September Picks


Newport County vsĀ Morecambe @2.69

First of all, these seem like crazy odds for a Morecambe side going along pretty well in 6th place in League 2 having won their last 2 games, against a Newport side who are bottom of the league and lost 5/6 matches so far. The home side lost 3-0 in front of the home fans to York last week and defended very poorly when the goals started going in. Morecambe, who have looked good in front of goal recently, will have a nice day if the home side repeat what happened last time out. A -1 handicap on the away side might not be a bad bet here, as we have seen the defensive frailties of Newport and the attacking capabilities of Morecambe, and at around 5/1 for Morecambe -1 this is very good value. For a bit more context – Morecambe are a better team that York, who smashed Newport 3-0 last week. Team news suggests that Newport have a couple of injuries and a defender suspended after getting sent off last week. Morecambe with no new injury worries or suspensions. I cannot see why Newport are slight favourites here. If they turn their form around and get a good result here then fair play, but I can see no reason for that to happen today.


Ingolstadt vs Wolfsburg @1.95

The newly promoted home side have started the season well, with two wins, and lie in mid-table. However, their approach seems to lend itself to playing well away from home – and both of their wins have been 1-0 away victories. The game they lost was against Dortmund at home, and that wasn’t pretty ending 4-0. You would say that it is harsh to criticise Ingolstadt for a heavy loss to a Dortmund team who have look very impressive, but Wolfsburg should be aiming at a similar level and will look to pose a similar threat. They come off the back of an exciting 3-0 win over Schalke, and despite the loss of Kevin de Bruyne, appear to have a talented squad to continue their good fortunes of last season. New additions Draxler and Dante could start. As we saw with Paderborn last season, a good start from a newly promoted team can be deceptive and reliant on a predictable style of play, or complacent opponents. Wolfsburg will be eager to keep up the pace with Dortmund and Bayern and look to get into good form. Dropped points here would be unacceptable for Dieter Hecking, and as long as his side don’t fall victim of counter-attacks, they should find space like Dortmund did and overcome Ingolstadt.


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