Sunday 29th June, Fortaleza
Match odds: Holland @21/20, Draw @ 23/10, Mexico @3/1
The Dutch side will go into this match as favourites, after impressing in the group stages by scoring 10 goals including a 5-1 win over Spain. Mexico haven’t been far off the achievements of their opponents, with an equally impressive display in the group stages but in different ways. Mexico based their success around defensive solidarity and sheer hard work, in contrast to Van Gaal’s side who’s main asset has clearly been their attacking power and threat of Van Persie and Robben. It makes for a fascinating encounter as both have their vulnerabilities. Mexico could struggle to score if they can’t grind Holland down and wear them out physically, it might just be a case of limited chances on the counter attack. However, if Mexico can close off the space and not allow the Dutch midfield & attack any time with the ball, it may not be so straight forward.
Many people have been raving about the Dutch display against Spain and their ability to score goals in abundance, but its easy to get carried away. Regardless of the reputation of Spain, Del Bosque’s side played horrifically badly in the second half of that match and at least 3 goals were scored purely because of mistakes. In their other two matches they struggled. Australia took the lead and only goals from Van Persie and a weak long shot gave them the win, but it was far from convincing against a weak Aussie side. Even in the Chile game, where on paper it looks like a good 2-0 victory, it took a late headed goal (for which Chile are notably short and relatively poor in the air) to break the deadlock in a pretty even game. Mexico will probably play in a similar style to Chile, but should be slightly more organised and prepped for crosses.
I expect a very close game, which is tough to call, and the value definitely doesn’t appear to be in a Dutch win. I would look for other options like Holland to win either 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 @15/8, as the Mexicans should put up a strong defence but this also covers them getting a goal back in a 2-1. A good bet to cover this, and one which takes into account the heat at Fortaleza combined with Mexico’s stamina and work-rate, could be Holland/Draw in ht/ft @16/1. I would lean towards the Dutch to win, but certainly wouldn’t put all my eggs in a Holland basket, so it sometimes pays to look to other markets to cover your main bets incase of something like a late equaliser. If you need a first half goal for your main bet, then you might want to look at covering it with something like time of first goal 81mins or later @ 18/1 when both teams might look to get a winner before extra time if they are shattered and extra-time looms in a stalemate.
Another market to look at here is corners. Holland have only had 5 corners in the whole competition so far – incredibly low. Mexico have had 14, 9 of which were against Croatia when the chips were down. They may well be in a similar situation here, and if they need goals at the end of the match then they will be look to set pieces and piling men forward. Both teams are at scratch for corner handicap, and I would go with Mexico most corners @evens. In what should be a pretty close game, as always it often pays off to wait until 10-15mins into the match to place your bets – just so you can get a feel of the intentions of both sides and gauge a possible outcome.