Juventus 3-1 Fiorentina : Juve battle to 3 points

Published on December 16, 2015December 24, 2015 by firstgoalscorer Category: Italy, Tactical

Juventus went into the game looking to continue the run of form they were enjoying, against their rivals Fiorentina, who themselves had shown us some of the best football in Serie A this season. The home side lined-up with a familiar three at the back, with Evra and Cuadrado deployed as wing-backs. Khedira came into midfield alongside Marchisio and Pogba, with Dybala and Mandzukic up top. Fiorentina had a similar looking back three, with Bernardeschi and Alonso occupying the wings. They effectively had an extra man in midfield with Vecino and Badelj holding in the centre, but then Valero and Ilicic also deployed around that area, with more license to go forward to link with Kalinic.

The game started at an incredible tempo, pushed by Juventus’ obvious desire to hunt down the ball in Fiorentina’s third. We knew that Sousa’s team would try and keep the ball in their half and attempt to dominate possession, but Allegri’s trick was clearly to disrupt this from the start and put immense pressure on the opponent’s defence and midfield on the ball. This instantly left gaps in midfield and into Juve’s half where they looked to push up, as they almost dared Fiorentina to try to play through them and take advantage. It backfired when the away side won a penalty just minutes into the game, as Bernardeschi charged into the penalty area and went down after claiming contact from Chiellini. Replays suggested light contact, if any, and it appeared that the Viola winger had gone down dramatically to steal his team an advantage early on. Either way, the penalty was converted well by Ilicic – hard to the keeper’s left.

The electrifying intensity to the game continued, mostly through Juve’s pressure and willingness to challenge their opponent’s philosophy and intent to keep the ball in their half to control the tempo. Allegri was effectively challenging Fiorentina to play their usual game, and to their credit the away side stuck to their guns. They backed their technical ability in players like Vecino, Badelj and Valero to play the ball around, use width and direct play at their own volition. An early feature of Juve’s play was Pogba’s willingness to go forward and drift out to the left, combining with Evra, which in turn lead to the equaliser after just another couple of minutes. Pogba released Evra from a nice back flick and Bernardeschi lazily letting him get towards the byline and cross the ball unopposed. Cuadrado met the cross with his head and (possibly unintentionally) looped it back over Tatarusanu into the far corner of the goal. You could see Sousa shaking his head on the touchline as the goal went in, most likely partially because of the ease that Evra could get the cross in and partially because of how easily Cuadrado has walked in at the back of the box to header at goal unopposed. It was a bit of a nothing goal to concede after taking the lead so early.

Both teams were still at high tempo and urgency somewhat after the second goal, with Juventus still pressing high-up the pitch, particularly Mandzukic who charged at the goalkeeper and defenders on multiple occasions. Pogba continued to go forward and looked to act as a number 10 at times, linking the play and also sticking to his midfield duties. Tomovic was forced to play it long a couple of times, where his team would then lose possession, albeit winning it back in midfield. Borja Valero was covering ground through the middle, running back to help offer himself as an extra body to keep possession, and then trying to move the play up the pitch when necessary. He, along with Ilicic, became Viola’s main men on the counter, as those two were generally the ones that the ball went through on its route to goal through the centre of the pitch – and they did a good job in the first half of keeping this fluidity and transition in attacks. Juve could identify the danger of their opponents on the ball, and Chiellini wasn’t averse to literally running out of his defensive line to engage the ball when Ilicic gathered it (pic below). He probably didn’t do this just because he was getting bored standing next to Bonucci. Bernardeschi saw Chiellini become fixed on Ilicic and looked to run into his space, but Ilicic gave the ball back to Tomovic in favour of keeping possession instead of facing up Chiellini.

Valencia 1-1 Barcelona : Makeshift Valencia steal a point

Published on December 6, 2015December 24, 2015 by firstgoalscorer Category: Spain, Tactical

A lot of the talk going into the build-up of this match was the appointment of Gary Neville at Valencia, but they had a lot to worry about on the pitch. Mustafi was still out injured, along with first choice goalkeeper Diego Alves. Cancelo’s suspension and the absence of Barragan meant that Ruben Vezo was pushed into right-back, with a central partnership of Abdennour and Santos. Danilo continued in midfield, alongside Parejo and Perez. Alcacer was left up top on his own in the absence of Negredo and Rodrigo. The away side fielded an ominously strong starting eleven, with a midfield three of Busquets, Iniesta and Rakitic.

Barcelona started with their customary high defensive line, with Mascherano pushing up to the half-way line on the ball. It was clear that they would see a lot of the ball, as they normally do, but the outlet early on appeared to be Neymar down the left, who had the first chance to run at the Valencia defence. Valencia themselves looked to the left-hand side early on to attack, with Danilo getting forward into the box but failing to capitalise on the build-up. Barca started to show signs of their superiority from early in the first half, mainly by setting Neymar off down the wing against Valencia’s makeshift and slightly inexperienced right-back Vezo. The Brazilian appeared to have the beating of him every time and was getting to the byline with alarming ease. He delivered the ball to Messi on one occasion for the number 10 to fire just over, and had another chance himself but shot horribly high. Danilo was dropping in to try and help Vezo after they realised Neymar’s threat, and even Mina on the right wing came back to cover at times, probably even not enough. You can see with the visuals below that the left channel was the biggest danger throughout the match, and generally where Barca looked to to engineer chances.

The majority of the Barcelona opportunities at goal came in the first half, with Suarez missing a volley at the far post and also dinking a cross just beyond Neymar coming in. Valencia defended central areas well individually at times, particularly Santos who notably made a good tackle on Messi on the edge of the area and then got a vital touch on a cross the came in to deny Suarez getting a goal. The home team had occasional opportunities to break into the opposing half and Parejo controlled the ball reasonably well in midfield when he got the chance. They had a penalty shout as Perez went down after Pique had his arm on him, but it was optimistic to say the least and rightly waved away. It soon became a struggle for them to get men into the box and provide decent targets for crosses. Against a weaker side, the makeshift Valencia team might have done reasonably well. Danilo attemped to get forward and Parejo manipulated the ball effectively – and they have the potential to use the width offered by Mina and de Paul that can cause problems and stretch the play on the attack, plus Gaya overlapping.

AC Milan 4-1 Sampdoria : Mihajlovic extinguishes Samp flame

Published on November 30, 2015December 24, 2015 by firstgoalscorer Category: Italy, Tactical

Mihajlovic would have been eagerly anticipating a trip from his former team, to face a Sampdoria side who have only taken 2 points away from home this season. Club favourite Vincenzo Montella appears to have a job on his hands to turn around their poor form, after taking over from Zenga a couple of weeks ago, with Samp managing only 1 win since the start of October. He fielded two strikers in Muriel and Eder, with what was effectively a diamond in midfield. Milan shaped up in more of a 4-4-3 formation, with Niang and Bacca furthest forward – supported by Bonaventura who roamed about and Cerci who stuck to the right, mostly. Bertolacci was missing, and Montolivo was left to hold down central midfield with Kucka.

The match started with an early mistake from the home team’s young goalkeeper, taking a bad touch and playing the ball out to Soriano, but managing to get back in time to make the save. Eder was caught on the leg in the process of Donarumma’s hurried clearance, and had to leave the field temporarily. Barreto appeared to try to cover more space down the left, with the cover of Ivan and Fernando possibly allowing him to do this. However, throughout the game, the presence of effectively four Sampdoria midfielders in central roles didn’t really help them control that area of the pitch. Kucka and Montolivo did a much better job in that respect. The width of Cerci helped the home side as well, which was something that Montella seemed to leave pretty much solely to the full-backs to try and offer. Barreto and Ivan wandered into wide areas intermittently, but this was never of any great benefit or purpose to attack.

Niang drifted out to the right, and seemed to ignore Cerci on one occasion early on, deciding to whip in a low cross which went out for a goal kick. After that he was sensible enough to give Cerci some more opportunity to try and create chances from the right wing – which he certainly did. Despite not being the most consistent of performers, one thing that Cerci can do is deliver a fantastic cross – which he did on several occasions. Although these were interspersed with a couple of wild shots and bad decisions, he really did have the beating of Mesbah on that side of the pitch, and looked a likely source for the opening goal. Antonelli was getting forward from full-back on the other wing, as he does, and it was a run and cut-back to Bacca which lead to a good shot and save from Viviano. The Samp keeper pushed it back out to Cerci who pounced and had the ball in the net, only for it to be correctly ruled offside. After the last game against Juve, where Bacca looked quiet and unable to really get into the game, it was positive for Rossoneri fans to see the Colombian looking lively.

Milan appeared the much more comfortable side in the opening half hour, and space began to open at times in midfield. Barreto didn’t really stick to his position, which didn’t help this, and Kucka was the most effective player at covering space and disrupting play for the opposition. Montolivo had an effective game as well, making interceptions and trying to dictate the tempo. Sampdoria had a chance at an opening with Mesbah getting forward well on the left, receiving a crossfield pass as he came into the box unguarded, but was eventually tackled. As is quite often the case in Serie A, when Antonelli gets forward on the left, he does it much more effectively than the other team – he runs with the ball and looks dangerous going forward almost catching the defenders by surprise. Mesbah likes to get forward, but only once on this occasion did he get space to run in to, and a chance to have an impact in a forward area. As the half played out, Montella’s side were on the back foot, with Milan’s front men getting more into the game. Cerci had another cross which flashed through the 6-yard box as Bonaventura was blocked off by Silvestri as he came in.

Juventus 1-0 AC Milan : Juve surpass Milan

Published on November 23, 2015December 24, 2015 by firstgoalscorer Category: Italy, Tactical

Always an exciting prospect, the first Juve – Milan encounter of the season could have culminated in either the away side moving five points ahead, or Alegri’s Bianconeri leapfrogging Milan in the Serie A standings. Juve started with a 4-3-1-2, or effectively at times a diamond formation, with Lichtsteiner and Evra offering the width as Pogba, Sturaro and Marchisio played central. Hernanes was deployed more in a number ten role behind the strikers Dybala and Mandzukic. The away side fielded a familiar 4-3-3, Alex at centre-back and Abate on the right, Bonaventura came back in for Poli and the front three remained as Cerci, Bacca and Niang.

Juventus pressed the opposition defence at the start, trying to force them to hurry the play and disrupt any rhythm they sought early. Milan have been constantly looking to play the ball short from the goalkeeper this season, often out to the full-backs – even as wide as square if necessary, but Juve’s two up front made this too difficult as it offered very little route out from the back along the ground. Along with this pressing, it may have been likely to see Juve try and expose Alex’s lack of pace and make runs in behind early on. However, this never really happened, and Milan looked pretty solid throughout the first half defensively, keeping their shape well and not getting too exposed by Juve’s two strikers. Montolivo appeared to try to track Hernanes and/or Marchisio when they came through central areas, but it was Kucka who did a lot of the early tackling and ball retrieval from midfield. The Slovak had an interesting game, on the one hand he made by far the most tackles, yet he also lost possession of the ball more than any other player on the pitch.

There was a reasonable amount of space in midfield early on, and the tempo of the game was pretty quick at times. Cerci was looking to get down the right wing, as he always does, but his final ball was again somewhat questionable. He did well to get past Marchisio on one occasion to break forward, and again after Kucka won the ball back, but even after getting to the byline failed to deliver a meaningful cross. Chiellini often tries to cut the ball out, or win the first ball played into the opposition attacker, and his role this evening involved coming across to cover the area on the left that Cerci was trying to run into. Evra went off injured later in the half and Alex Sandro, who got forward a lot (especially when Juve went to a 3-5-2 after the break), came on. Sandro generally struggled with Cerci during the game, and his impact definitely came further up the pitch. On the other side, it became slightly open at times. Lichtsteiner was marauding forward, as he does, and Barzagli offered some cover around that area, but Bonaventura and Niang had opportunities to exploit the left-hand side, and Antonelli would have liked to have had a greater impact overlapping.

Juve began to dominate possession, and looked to exert their control over the game as far up the pitch as they could. Milan, on one occasion showed decent interplay in the final third, but never really troubled the home side’s shape. At the other end, Dybala looked lively and quite often came deeper in search of the ball, and had good movement in and out of possession. Mandzukic didn’t have a great impact and was relatively quiet, having significantly less touches than Dybala and not getting a chance to get threaten inside Milan’s penalty area anywhere near as much as he’d have liked. Mandzukic did on occasion get time to accept the ball, as the away side didn’t always get tight to him and appeared to allow him some space to operate. That being said, the Croatian became slightly frustrated. Under Conte, one of Juve’s main strengths was their link-up of the strikers as they used the two-striker approach extremely effectively. They were able to manage transitions from midfield to attack and demonstrate movement between the lines that unsettled and broke through opposition defences. It’s obvious that they are still trying to fill the void left from Tevez’s departure, whose movement and purpose with the ball was so key up front. Llorente, although never setting the world alight, built up a partnership with Tevez where they appeared to work really well together as a duo.

Sampdoria 0-2 Fiorentina : Viola dominate possession

Published on November 16, 2015December 24, 2015 by firstgoalscorer Category: Italy, Tactical

Many saw this trip to the Marassi as a big test for Sousa’s team, with Sampdoria unbeaten at home so far this season. They came into the game off the back of a European tie three days prior, a trip to Poznan, albeit making a fair few changes. Bernardeschi occupied the right wing-back and Pasqual the left, seeing Roncaglia slot back into defence. Badelj came in for Suarez in the middle, and Valero moved back into the attacking midfield role, with Kalinic replacing Rossi up top. Samp took up a familiar 4-3-3, with their main danger being the pace and movement of Eder and Muriel on the break.

The match picked up quickly, with a fast-paced start, as the away side looked to use their wing-backs as an advantage, trying to provide options out wide going forward. Pasqual, in particular, got forward early on and Samp appeared to offer him too much space. Borja Valero was intent on closing down the opposition players on the ball in their own half in his section, on the left, and the home side weren’t generally allowed the space to build through midfield. However, the referee set a precedent of booking Badelj early on for tugging back Eder who was breaking away, followed by the same reprimand for Vecino shortly after. This could have been some concern for Viola, with both their central midfielders on bookings and unable to commit to risky tackles for the rest of the game. However, this never really materialised as an issue because of how Fiorentina put the emphasis of the game firmly upon their own possession of the ball, and never got in a position where they had to chase around in those areas.

The breakthrough came when Samp’s young full-back Pereira, playing for the first time on the left, was caught out of position and lost his man after Roncaglia played a long ball over the top. Bernardeschi cut in and flicked the ball up, prompting Zukanovic to inexplicably wave his arm at it and give away a penalty. Ilicic scored the resulting spot-kick, low and hard to Viviano’s left. This only served to inspire confidence into the away side, as they got men forward on the attack, and dominated possession. Bernardeschi looked dangerous coming forward down the right, on one occasion running with the ball and shooting just wide. Samp did manage to use their outlet of Muriel, as he burst away down the left, with Gonzalo booked for pulling him back at the byline, but the home side couldn’t utilise the counter at all well, and showed no great threat or intent at moving men into Fiorentina’s half. When they did pick up the ball in their own half, they were quick to pass it to an opposition player and lose any opportunity they had to catch Viola out of position.

Defensively Sampdoria seemed to struggle as well. Kalinic had a great chance to score, after a fantastic dink through from Badelj (shown in the image at the bottom, demonstrating the movement of the front two), but putting it wide of the post. The defensive line was poor – with one man out of position (yellow circled) and playing Kalinic onside. Sousa’s men continued to press high up the pitch if the opposition took too long on the ball in defence, disrupting the rhythm of the Blucerchiati, and pinning their play back. All the while, Eder and Muriel were becoming completely isolated from the play and a void would appear between them and the midfield whenever they had the ball. If anything, Viola were the more proficient on the counter, with Ilicic breaking this time, although the final pass being offside. Samp did have a brief spell where they tried to rally before half-time, as the noise from the crowd intensified. Muriel still looked lively, despite a lack of service, and he got onto the end of a long ball, after Astori failed to deal with it, but the resulting opportunity was blazed over by Baretto with a clear chance failing to materialise. All the same, it was some hope for the home side, and Fernando was trying his best to gee up the supporters.

Inter 1-0 Roma : A familiar result to return to the top

Published on November 1, 2015December 24, 2015 by firstgoalscorer Category: Italy, Tactical

Inter started the game in familiar shape, but with Icardi missing out and Jovetic playing in the centre of attack. Perhaps controversially, D’Ambrosio started at right back for the first time this season, and Nagatomo on the other side, possibly to combat the pace of the Roma attack. Both teams looked relatively similar in shape, as you would have expected, with a 4-3-3 line-up. Garcia has somewhat transformed his side into a more counter-attacking team in recent weeks, which has worked with the pace of Gervinho and Salah, but relies less on the technical guile of players like Pjanic.

The game started at a pretty fast pace, more so than Inter’s last game against Bologna, and Gervinho had some joy in getting down the right along the byline, but failing with the delivery. Nainggolan looked to be the one dictating Roma’s play in the middle of the field, coming deeper to receive the ball at times, and playing passes around. From the start, it was noticeable that Inter were more comfortable dropping off Roma when the away side had possession in their own half. The Roma defenders could bring the ball nearly out to the halfway line unchallenged, as Mancini’s men retreated with the midfield squeezing back onto the defence to form two solid lines.

When Inter had possession, Nagatomo was predictably high up the pitch, often in Roma’s half and at times Maicon was caught out and put too much responsibility on Salah to drop back. There was an interesting battle between Digne and D’Ambrosio on the other side, with the Roma left back getting forward and trying to engineer a position to cross from. When he did manage to get a ball in for the first time, it was a decent delivery, prompting a save from a Dzeko header. Along with Maicon overlapping on the opposite flank, it looked like a good route for Roma to take and expose the Inter defence against Dzeko aerially in the box.

Inter weren’t without good movement going forward, with Ljajic and Brozovic linking up to create a chance from a cross into the box, but without the final touch. The players going forward for the Nerazzurri, tending to be the front three plus Brozovic, were roaming around a fair bit – switching sides and cutting in from the flanks. This occasionally gave them good options on the counter-attack, and looked to expose Roma’s high defensive line. With the high, flat line that Garcia’s side had adopted, it appeared as though Inter could slip through with some quick short passes and clever movement – something that Jovetic usually offers – but nothing quite materialised. It may well have been useful to have Icardi in there to play off Jovetic and try and manipulate space, which he can do well at times. Palacio came on late in the second half and, although in different circumstances, demonstrated how to play off the shoulder of the defender and work space well.

Roma did look to Salah to run with the ball, like he has done effectively so far this season, but he couldn’t really penetrate the Inter defence and Nagatomo had a very good game, getting back at him on a few occasions to stop any meaningful service from the Roma wide man. Instead it was Maicon, who’s movement coming in front the right, could have opened up a pathway to goal. As he showed a couple of times, he can get forward into good areas un-tracked, and he found himself with a free shot in the area towards the end of the first half, which was saved and pushed out to Dzeko who probably should have reacted quicker on the rebound. Dzeko looked slightly out of sorts all game, but appeared more dangerous in the air, his touch letting him down a few times. Inter were pretty poor at defending aerial balls into the box, not just against the Bosnian striker, but also from Rudiger and Manolas on separate occasions. They brought on Ranocchia towards the end, but this didn’t really seem to alleviate the problem.

Bologna 0-1 Inter : Mancini’s ten men prevail

Published on October 28, 2015December 24, 2015 by firstgoalscorer Category: Italy, Tactical

With Inter going into the game off the back of a four-game winless streak, after the fantastic start they had, it was expected of them to cast Bologna aside and take three points. However, from the start, there were surprises in how the game developed. Firstly, Mancini left out Jovetic from the starting line-up, which was particularly strange with him having saying he needs game-time with Icardi to build up a connection. The movement of the front three – those two plus Perisic – has been a plus point for Inter at times in this campaign, but Bologna provided strong resistance to any sort of penetration by the away side from the start.

The majority of the attacking threat from the Nerazzurri, adorned in their luminous shade of yellow, came from the wings through Perisic and Ljajic. This was highlighted in the first ten minutes as the Croatian showed his pace by nipping past Massina but then not being able to get the cross in. This was a theme of the first half – not Perisic being able to beat his man, but the failure to provide any decent service into the box. Santon was available for an overlap on the right, but was used too little. The game became compacted in the middle inside Bologna’s half, as they effectively had a ‘screen’ of midfielders in front of the defence, and Inter couldn’t open up the opposition enough to expose space down the flanks. The home side probably had the edge – and formed one notable chance from a very good long ball, which Mounier failed to get on the end of. Mancini’s team looked flat, and in need of the creative threat and individual skill required to unlock the door – one in which Jovetic would presumably have been looking to provide had he been on the pitch.

Kondogbia was possibly Inter’s best player in the first half, whilst not doing anything spectacular, he demonstrated his ability on the ball, willingness to engage the opposition and mobility in moving up and down the centre of the pitch alongside Felipe Melo. However, as we’ve seen already this season, Kondogbia is prone to a booking, which he duly picked up just before half time. This restricted him in his role in centre-mid and put more reliance on Melo to be positionally aware… until the Brazilian got himself sent off. It was possibly harsh – good skill from Rizzo to pop the ball through his legs, and the Inter midfielder couldn’t, or wouldn’t, shift out of the way quickly enough. This changed the game completely. The problem with Melo’s red was that Mancini was looking like he was getting ready to bring on Jovetic, but had to alter his plans. As it happened, Bologna’s ‘screen’ broke down, and what was once an organised station of red defence became a mix with gaps opening up between the lines. This allowed Inter to move the ball infield more and stretch the home side’s midfield and defence around.

Inter’s goal came from two mistakes by the home side, which was unfortunate because they were still in with a chance of making it a really good game. Gastaldello misplaced a simple short pass which was picked up by Perisic and found its way to Brozovic. He played a ball through the middle which Ferrari let slip past to Ljajic, who was able to square for Icardi to tap in. Although the errors resulted in the goal, Bologna were surprisingly exposed for the first significant time in the match. Although the game was opening up, Mancini’s side may well have struggled to break the deadlock without that gift. From there though, credit must be given to Inter, as they played more freely and cohesively with ten men. I think this was partly due to Bologna’s lack of defensive rigidity compared to the first half, but also much more fluid movement and control of the game from the away side, who upped the tempo. Brozovic was looking, for 5 to 10 minutes or so, that he would be forced slightly deeper alongside Kondogbia after Melo’s dismissal, but never really needed to.

Analysing Maran’s Chievo

Published on October 23, 2015July 27, 2016 by firstgoalscorer Category: Italy, Tactical

Chievo are a great example of a team that have had a fantastic turnaround in fortunes this season, and provide a good example as to how to manage your way up the table. The recipe for a successful and consistent league campaign, at least in Serie A, has to come from two directions – hard work, mental attitude and cohesion but also to implement this correctly through tactics and disciplined training. Maran seems to have captured this plan very well this season, bringing together the emphasis on high-energy & hard-work with tactical shape and familiarity in matches.

Maran’s approach centres around pressing from the front – one which should be reasonably familiar – but this is broken down into sections and works well on an individual basis as well as effecting the shape of the team as a whole. A key point here is that it is the responsibility of the strikers (usually Paloschi and Meggiorini) to decide when to push up and pressure the opposition on the ball in their half, and when to drop off. The theory behind this is that no team can maintain this sort of energy and closing down for 90 minutes, and the strikers are the first point of contact when the opposing defence gain possession. If Chievo’s front men need a rest, they drop off the pressure and the midfield falls back into shape behind them. When they are ready again to press, they check that the midfield is relatively organised and if so they go and try to reclaim the ball. It sounds simple, but it is a good cue for the rest of the team to stabalise, regroup and maintain a good structure when they are defending, without getting caught open. It doesn’t all rely on winning back possession either, as the high pressing serves to hurry the opposition into making longer passes, whilst also leaving the two strikers high up the pitch for counter-attacking. Meanwhile, the midfield tend to stay in a compact diamond shape which can congest the centre of the pitch.

Centre-back Gamberini spoke during an interview that the Chievo back-line know defence starts from the front, and that the balance of play and the resulting movement of the rest of the team depend on how easy it is for the opposition to break out of their own half with the ball. He said that ‘closing doors’ and positioning is relative to the work of his own team’s forwards. Its an important concept, and although many people acknowledge ‘building from the back’ and working the ball out of defence, through midfield to the strikers in order to create chances on goal – we don’t tend to think of the reverse for the defending team. Maran’s style does really well at targeting the correct areas on the pitch as to where his side need to put the high-intensity in to try and win the ball back, taking into account things like the flow of the game, how many men are out of position and how expansive the play has become in the preceding attack.

12th September Picks

Published on September 12, 2015September 12, 2015 by firstgoalscorer Category: England, Germany

Newport County vs Morecambe @2.69

First of all, these seem like crazy odds for a Morecambe side going along pretty well in 6th place in League 2 having won their last 2 games, against a Newport side who are bottom of the league and lost 5/6 matches so far. The home side lost 3-0 in front of the home fans to York last week and defended very poorly when the goals started going in. Morecambe, who have looked good in front of goal recently, will have a nice day if the home side repeat what happened last time out. A -1 handicap on the away side might not be a bad bet here, as we have seen the defensive frailties of Newport and the attacking capabilities of Morecambe, and at around 5/1 for Morecambe -1 this is very good value. For a bit more context – Morecambe are a better team that York, who smashed Newport 3-0 last week. Team news suggests that Newport have a couple of injuries and a defender suspended after getting sent off last week. Morecambe with no new injury worries or suspensions. I cannot see why Newport are slight favourites here. If they turn their form around and get a good result here then fair play, but I can see no reason for that to happen today.

Ingolstadt vs Wolfsburg @1.95

The newly promoted home side have started the season well, with two wins, and lie in mid-table. However, their approach seems to lend itself to playing well away from home – and both of their wins have been 1-0 away victories. The game they lost was against Dortmund at home, and that wasn’t pretty ending 4-0. You would say that it is harsh to criticise Ingolstadt for a heavy loss to a Dortmund team who have look very impressive, but Wolfsburg should be aiming at a similar level and will look to pose a similar threat. They come off the back of an exciting 3-0 win over Schalke, and despite the loss of Kevin de Bruyne, appear to have a talented squad to continue their good fortunes of last season. New additions Draxler and Dante could start. As we saw with Paderborn last season, a good start from a newly promoted team can be deceptive and reliant on a predictable style of play, or complacent opponents. Wolfsburg will be eager to keep up the pace with Dortmund and Bayern and look to get into good form. Dropped points here would be unacceptable for Dieter Hecking, and as long as his side don’t fall victim of counter-attacks, they should find space like Dortmund did and overcome Ingolstadt.

11th August League Cup

Published on August 11, 2015 by firstgoalscorer Category: England

Sheffield Wednesday @1.54 vs Mansfield

The home side had a good start to their season with a 2-0 win on the weekend, with a tricky fixture against the promoted League 1 champions. After a solid mid-table Championship performance last year, Wednesday will be looking for a good start to the cup and another impressive performance in front of the home fans. The last thing they will be expecting is a loss to a Mansfield side who are two divisions below them. The away team struggled with a home draw against Carlisle in their opening league fixture. Wednesday, in good form, in front of their home fans, two divisions above their opposition – would think about -1 handicap @2.30, don’t know how intent on scoring multiple goals the home side will be though (they might take it a bit easy with a game on the weekend etc).

Swindon @1.69 vs Exeter

Swindon’s pre-season form was slightly deceptive as they played 4 Premier League teams at home before their opening game… losing all of them. They are generally pretty impressive at home in the league as a rule and, despite dropping off at the end of last season, go into this campaign as 4th favourites for the title. They beat Bradford 4-1 in their opening game, despite going behind early on, and will look to follow this up with another win in the cup to gain momentum to their season. Exeter, who finished mid-table in League 2 last season, started their campaign well with a 3-2 win over Yeovil, thanks to a late goal. However, they are yet to demonstrate their away form this season, and a trip to the County Ground will be tough for them. Exeter also went out of the League Cup and FA Cup in round one last season. Their form came in patches last season in the league – suggesting they benefit greatly from a run of good results to build up momentum to a big game like this, which might be why they had a poor cup run last season, as they started without a win in their first 7 league games then. Their win against Yeovil on the weekend will come as a positive, but League 1 side Swindon should really be too strong for them.

Nottingham Forest @1.78 vs Walsall

Forest lost their opening Championship game on the weekend to Brighton, but they really weren’t too far off the pace against a relatively tough ground to go to. They will most likely be mid-table possibly challenging for promotion again this season, and have a decent squad to compete in the Championship. They should go into this game looking to kick off a cup run and hopefully get things back on track for their next league game, because they know they have a talented squad and should be desperate to not underperform again. First competitive game at home is like a second start to the season and a chance to get the fans behind them. Walsall, on the other hand, are an average League 1 side at best, and suffered a miserable start to the season last year. They shouldn’t really have the quality to beat Forest away from home here, but it could depend if Dougie Freedman wants to get their season going here or take it easy and potentially give Walsall a chance to frustrate the home side. I still think the gap in quality between the two sides, plus home advantage early in the season, is big enough to make the odds on Forest seem decent. Forest -1 is @2.82 currently, which could be a decent shout if the home side want to prove a point, but in the cup I’d probably leave handicap for this one.