Russia vs South Korea

An interesting game between two sides who are maybe expected to not live up to recent performances at previous major international tournaments. Russia appear to still be building for the home World Cup in 2018 and have struggled with injuries before a ball has been kicked. South Korea have one of the weaker squads of this tournament, and will be relying on Arsenal’s struggling striker Park Chu-Young and their main man Son Heung-Min. Son is the only real obvious goal threat, after having a fantastic season in the Bundesliga on Leverkusen’s left wing. South Korea have a great record in opening games of World Cups – winning the last three against Poland, Togo and Greece. Son to score anytime @11/4 looks good if you think Korea will get a goal or want to cover another bet that involves a Russia clean sheet. 8/1 for first goalscorer.

Russia will clearly miss captain Shirokov in their midfield. If he starts, Dzagoev could be the key man like he showed he can be at the Euros 2 years ago. Capello’s side have the stronger squad, but it is more than possible that South Korea will go into ‘tournament mode’ and perform above their ability on paper. Russia go into the game in better form, if friendlies are much to go by, and will be favourites to win here in their opening game. Their defence looks pretty solid lately and they have an experienced and quality goalkeeper in Akinfeev. Russia/Draw in ht/ft @ 16/1 seems tempting, but the main gamble here would be whether Korea can break down the Russian resistance. The probably more likely bet here is Russia to win to nil @ 21/10. It might be worth waiting ’til in-play to see the two teams and how they can cope and how they set out.

Germany vs Portugal

Much has been made about the strength of Germany’s squad at this World Cup, despite the loss of Marco Reus. A few of their players are returning from injury, haven’t played a huge amount of football this season in the positions they expect to play for Germany and they lack a world class striker. It is yet to be seen as to whether Klose will get a good shot at beating the all-time World Cup goalscoring record. Another option is to play Muller, or even Gotze in his place. I would be wary of betting on a German goalscorer, purely because of the uncertainty of the starting 11 and their tendancy to share goals around the team.

Portgual, in my opinion, have a great chance of getting more out of this game than many people believe. They have a strong squad, starting with the defence – Alves and Pepe form a strong centre-back pairing – along with Coentrao and Periera. Someone will anchor the midfield/defence, probably Carvalho or Veloso if the former is struggling with injury. Then the key midfielder will probably be Moutinho. He’s the link and the creative option to try and help Ronaldo do all of his attacking jobs. Meireles will try and be mobile, Nani will offer help via 1 wing, and Postiga will occupy space up front. The obvious Portguese bet is some kind of goal involving Ronaldo – Ronaldo to score last @ 4/1 is a possibility and decent value because of his free-kick threat and will to win the game towards the end.

I think it will be a tight game, both have the ability to score and to come back froma goal down. Portgual are a ‘tournament team’. They haven’t changed much in recent years, but they will fight and grind out results and all of a sudden everyone will be surprised. Germany/Draw in ht/ft @14/1 looks good for this game, and potentially Portgual/Draw as well at the same price. I think that if Portugal can get the transition from midfield to attack working well, they have a good shot of winning the match. Counter-attacking with Ronaldo and Nani could be the key. In terms of looking for the best value for Man of the match, I would gamble that Portgual end up the better side and then go with an attacking player (defenders can be hard to predict – if one playes well they normally all play pretty well). I’d go with Moutinho Fifa Man of the match @16/1.

Argentina vs Bosnia-Herzegovina

Argentina will go into the tournament as some people’s favourites to lift the trophy, and with their attacking firepower it will be tough for Bosnia to get in their way in the opening game. Messi, Aguero, Higuain and Di Maria all look likely to join in with the attack, while Gago and Mascherano anchor the defensive duties. The game is not all about the South American side however, with Bosnia & Herzegovina boasting a talented team and will be expected to qualify in 2nd place to the knock-out stages.

I think, with the Argentinian strikeforce, and the likes of Dzeko on show, it shapes up to be another high-scoring game. Over 2.5 goals is only available at around 8/13, which doesn’t offer much value. Therefore, my bet would be Argentina to win and over 2.5 goals in the match @6/5. Argentina look strong enough to see of the opposition, but they will be wary of their threat and a clean sheet is not a priority. The talents of both sides lies in the attacking department. Another attractive option is over 1.5 goals in 1st half @11/8, considering both sides’ attacking intent and relatively slow defence. It may well be a case of attack being the best form of defence. The goals market also takes out the relevance of the uncertainty over whether Bosnia-Herzegovina will be a strong match for their opponents –  they could get destroyed or they could get an early goal or two, either way there should be goals.

 

France vs Honduras

This is seemingly a game in which many expect France to win, and relatively comfortably at that. Much has been made of their 8-0 defeat of Jamaica in the friendly they played recently, and see that as a benchmark for playing against weaker opposition. I think Honduras have a much better chance of frustrating France, due to the physical aggressive style of play, but you would expect France to still clinch the victory here due to the superiority and form of their team. Realistically, the best bet for value here is not going to be a France win @1/4, but France -1 handicap @5/6 looks good, with the -2 maybe slightly ambitious @9/4. Another option is France to win to nil @evens, which is risky in this world cup with so many goals so far, but Honduras seem likely to struggle for chances.

The main, in terms of personnel, appears to be the inclusion of Antoine Griezmann and Olivier Giroud. It is still unknown as to whether Benzema will be pushed out wide to accommodate the Arsenal front man, or whether Giroud will be left out. I think they will go for Griezmann and Benzema up top personally. Thus, I’m going with Benzema to score 2+ goals @ 7/2. Another decent bet seems to be France -3 corners handicap @evens, purely because of the amount of time France should spend going forward, and the threat they bring down the wings with the likes of Griezmann, Evra and potentially Valbuena.

Switzerland vs Ecuador

Switzerland have a relatively young and exciting squad, and will be slight favourites to win the match against an Ecuador side who have an awful record playing outside of Ecuador. Switzerland have the potential to control the midfield and occupy the open space, utilising Behrami and Inler, allowing Xhaka to move forward (or one of the 3). Their much improved attacking force comes mainly through Shaqiri and Drmic, both of whom have shown off a great season in the Bundesliga. Drmic in particular, who scored 17 goals for relagated side Nurnberg, looks certain to start as the lone striker. Drmic first goalscorer @9/2 looks like a good bet for an in-form striker.

The worry for Switzerland would probably be the conditions, the main reason why I would be reluctant to bet on Switzerland winning @11/8. Ecuador are strong in warm climates and play their games at home at very high altitude, meaning they could come back into the game if the Swiss fade. This makes Switzerland/Draw @16/1 in ht/ft a relatively attractive proposition. Ecuador to win from behind is available @16/1.

England vs Italy

A lot of factors in this game point towards a draw. Its probably one of the closest encounters of all the opening round matches. England look a better team since they met in the Euros when it ended 0-0 after 90 minutes, and Italy look reasonably similar. There are still question marks over certain positions in both sides – England’s left and right, with the options of Welbeck, Sterling and Lallana. Then Italy have to decide between a previously favoured Balotelli and a very much in-form Ciro Immobile, with other attacking players hanging on the fringe of the starting lineup such as Insigne, Candreva and Cerci. Its pretty difficult to separate the sides, and a draw is relatively low @2/1. I would lean towards a 1-1 @9/2, but even that isn’t terrific value.

With such a tight game, but both teams having the ability to go forward and score goals, I think there is real value in the halftime/fulltime market here. England ht/draw ft @18/1 would be my pick, but the opposite of Italy/Draw is the same price and also pretty good value. I would say that the first goal in this game is crucial – more so than normal. If Italy score first then it will be incredibly difficult for England to chase the game and come back. However, if England score first, its unlikely to open the game up too much but Italy will still want to commit more men forward as time goes on.

De Rossi will seemingly be the key man in this with his disciplined approach to positioning – will he move back into the back four at times, or will the tempo of the game allow him to drag himself up the pitch more. Either way, due to his role, De Rossi first player carded @12/1 is a good outside bet. Its then up to England to use their pace and try and get the transition between midfield and attack into flow, at which point Sturridge will probably be drifting in from the left and running at De Sciglio who is 16/1 to be carded first, however it might not be De Sciglio who plays left-back so its a good idea to wait for the team sheets.

Uruguay vs Costa Rica

Many people would have this down as a relatively convincing win for Uruguay. However, Costa Rica are generally pretty organised defensively and will play very conservatively, trying to shut Uruguay out probably with 3 centre-backs. They will rely on their potential to counter with Joel Campbell and the artistry of Bryan Ruiz going forward. Uruguay will like to think their defence can cope with this, bringing the likes of Diego Godin and Lugano. I think Costa Rica will struggle for opportunities going forward and rely to heavily on Campbell having a good game. With the opposition possessing the quality of Cavani and Forlan up front, aided by Stuani and Cristian Rodriguez, you would expect them to break the deadlock at some point. I would go with Uruguay to win to nil @11/10.

The other potential option is to gamble that Costa Rica hold out until half-time, which is definitely possible, and then crumble under the pressure of Uruguay’s attack in the second half. You can get 3/1 on Draw/Uruguay in ht/ft. Like in the Brazil Croatia game, this also covers off the 1-1 at the break. I would be surprised if Costa Rica didn’t concede in the second half. Uruguay win and under 2.5 match goals is available at around 15/8, but the way the World Cup has gone so far – high scoring – isn’t particularly conducive to this bet. Another bet I’ll probably go with is Half with most goals – 2nd Half @11/10. Like I mentioned before, its Costa Rica’s plan to defend, a job at which they are relatively used to and organised at, so it could take longer than 45 minutes to break them down let alone for any flood gates to open.

Chile vs Australia

Australia will be the big underdogs here, but are unlikely to play defensively to contain their opponents. They will most likely continue their style of fast & attacking football, which could open the game up completely considering Chile’s attacking approach. The match will likely involve lots of counter-attacking and running for both teams.

Chile have the much stronger team, with the Aussies lacking experience or quality at the same sort of level. I would expect Chile to use their pace and energy up front and convert chances. I would back Chile -1 handicap @5/4. I’d go for this over anything like Chile to win to nil, purely because it is possible that Australia will score. Its a World Cup in which they don’t really have much to lose and are fully expected not to make an impression in the group stage. Their opportunities may be limited, but I think they can still pose a threat, particularly from set pieces where Chile can be poor and the Aussies have Tim Cahill. Not only could Cahill pose a threat in the air from free-kicks/corners, but he would benefit from making late runs into the box and getting on the end of crosses as a result of counter attacks.

If he was fit, Vidal would probably be the key man, hovering around central midfield and attack. However, it looks like he will not play as a result of his lingering injury problems. The odds on goalscorers are pretty short, with not a huge amount of value considering its slightly difficult to know how Chile will set up without Vidal. Alexis Sanchez is around 4/1 to score first and Vargas 5/1 , neither of which seem worth it to me. Due to the potentially open nature of the game, and the attacking intent shown by both sides recently, I’ll probably go for 1st half over 1.5 goals @2/1.

Spain vs Netherlands

A game that, in many people’s eyes, points towards a Spain win. The relatively unknown quantity of the Dutch defence will be a pretty decisive factor in the outcome – they are inexperienced at this sort of international level and will have to be adaptable in their approach to the game. Whether they play 3 or 4 at the back is pretty uncertain, but they will likely be getting up the pitch, where there is the possibility of getting caught behind on the counter. This makes a potential for an open game, but it will depend somewhat on Spain’s approach and attitude towards committing to attacks and fast counter-attacks or keeping possession. As a result, I would be wary of betting on Goals markets pre-game, but under 2.5 goals is around @4/7 and over @11/8.

I think that Spain will start with Costa as the head of the attack, but there is still a question mark over whether he will start – they could opt for a false nine. It makes it difficult to opt for anything in a goalscorer market, unless you feel that Holland will nick a goal first, in which case Robben first goalscorer @9/1 seems ok value because of his threat coming in from the flank. This, combined with the increased probability of Spain doing the damage going forward down the wings, could lead to rash tackles by defenders running back into position. I would say that a penalty to be awarded @11/4 is a pretty good shout, although I would wait until the line-ups are revealed to see Spain’s shape (i.e. will Pedro start out wide).

My choice, a seemingly popular one, would be Spain to win @5/6. Spain have multiple options to change their tactical approach and personnel from the bench, more so that Holland.  You wouldn’t expect the Dutch side to keep a clean sheet against this opposition, but there is always the strong possibility of a goal at the other end. Van Persie, Robben and Sneijder from set pieces have the potential to change the game even if their side are being outplayed with limited sights of goal. My choice would be a not-so-inconceivable scoreline of a 2-1 Spain victory @17/2, although the bookies’ slight favourite is 1-0 @5/1. An interesting encounter which I think points towards a narrow Spain victory.

  

Opening game : Brazil vs Croatia

Draw/Brazil (halftime/fulltime): @11/4

The opening game is huge – Brazil playing back in Brazil at the world cup finals. I think it will start off slightly cagey, Croatia will not want to concede early but will be unlikely to want to commit forward too much and afford the hosts too much space in the middle of the pitch. Brazil will look to open the game up in the final third, but might find this difficult and revert to a slightly more rigid shape, although will most likely get a few chances. The second half will obviously require Brazil to go on and win the game, which you would ultimately expect to happen. It’s a gamble, hoping that Croatia will hold out until half time and that the break will signal the start of Brazil’s intent to push on and get the ball into the box. But I think it will take a half for the tempo of the game, which should initially be restricted to a low-intensity midfield battle, to pick up and mistakes to be made. Draw in the first half also covers the 1-1, incase the deadlock is broken early, in which case you would expect the other team to chase more intently. 11/4 appears like the best value in the ht/ft market to me. Could cover this with Brazil to win the match 3-0, 3-1 or 3-2 @7/2 in case of an early goal.

The opening game in a World Cup isn’t really a great opportunity for betting, considering the fact that both teams are under pressure and are playing new opponents. No-one really knows how either side intend to lineup or play, and in terms of available bets its often a better option to wait until the match has kicked off and bet in-play.