Bologna 0-1 Inter : Mancini’s ten men prevail

 

With Inter going into the game off the back of a four-game winless streak, after the fantastic start they had, it was expected of them to cast Bologna aside and take three points. However, from the start, there were surprises in how the game developed. Firstly, Mancini left out Jovetic from the starting line-up, which was particularly strange with him having saying he needs game-time with Icardi to build up a connection. The movement of the front three – those two plus Perisic – has been a plus point for Inter at times in this campaign, but Bologna provided strong resistance to any sort of penetration by the away side from the start.

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The majority of the attacking threat from the Nerazzurri, adorned in their luminous shade of yellow, came from the wings through Perisic and Ljajic. This was highlighted in the first ten minutes as the Croatian showed his pace by nipping past Massina but then not being able to get the cross in. This was a theme of the first half – not Perisic being able to beat his man, but the failure to provide any decent service into the box. Santon was available for an overlap on the right, but was used too little. The game became compacted in the middle inside Bologna’s half, as they effectively had a ‘screen’ of midfielders in front of the defence, and Inter couldn’t open up the opposition enough to expose space down the flanks. The home side probably had the edge – and formed one notable chance from a very good long ball, which Mounier failed to get on the end of. Mancini’s team looked flat, and in need of the creative threat and individual skill required to unlock the door – one in which Jovetic would presumably have been looking to provide had he been on the pitch.

Kondogbia was possibly Inter’s best player in the first half, whilst not doing anything spectacular, he demonstrated his ability on the ball, willingness to engage the opposition and mobility in moving up and down the centre of the pitch alongside Felipe Melo. However, as we’ve seen already this season, Kondogbia is prone to a booking, which he duly picked up just before half time. This restricted him in his role in centre-mid and put more reliance on Melo to be positionally aware… until the Brazilian got himself sent off. It was possibly harsh – good skill from Rizzo to pop the ball through his legs, and the Inter midfielder couldn’t, or wouldn’t, shift out of the way quickly enough. This changed the game completely. The problem with Melo’s red was that Mancini was looking like he was getting ready to bring on Jovetic, but had to alter his plans. As it happened, Bologna’s ‘screen’ broke down, and what was once an organised station of red defence became a mix with gaps opening up between the lines. This allowed Inter to move the ball infield more and stretch the home side’s midfield and defence around.

Inter’s goal came from two mistakes by the home side, which was unfortunate because they were still in with a chance of making it a really good game. Gastaldello misplaced a simple short pass which was picked up by Perisic and found its way to Brozovic. He played a ball through the middle which Ferrari let slip past to Ljajic, who was able to square for Icardi to tap in. Although the errors resulted in the goal, Bologna were surprisingly exposed for the first significant time in the match. Although the game was opening up, Mancini’s side may well have struggled to break the deadlock without that gift. From there though, credit must be given to Inter, as they played more freely and cohesively with ten men. I think this was partly due to Bologna’s lack of defensive rigidity compared to the first half, but also much more fluid movement and control of the game from the away side, who upped the tempo. Brozovic was looking, for 5 to 10 minutes or so, that he would be forced slightly deeper alongside Kondogbia after Melo’s dismissal, but never really needed to.

Analysing Maran’s Chievo

Chievo are a great example of a team that have had a fantastic turnaround in fortunes this season, and provide a good example as to how to manage your way up the table. The recipe for a successful and consistent league campaign, at least in Serie A, has to come from two directions – hard work, mental attitude and cohesion but also to implement this correctly through tactics and disciplined training. Maran seems to have captured this plan very well this season, bringing together the emphasis on high-energy & hard-work with tactical shape and familiarity in matches.

Chievo - Football tactics and formations

Maran’s approach centres around pressing from the front – one which should be reasonably familiar – but this is broken down into sections and works well on an individual basis as well as effecting the shape of the team as a whole. A key point here is that it is the responsibility of the strikers (usually Paloschi and Meggiorini) to decide when to push up and pressure the opposition on the ball in their half, and when to drop off. The theory behind this is that no team can maintain this sort of energy and closing down for 90 minutes, and the strikers are the first point of contact when the opposing defence gain possession. If Chievo’s front men need a rest, they drop off the pressure and the midfield falls back into shape behind them. When they are ready again to press, they check that the midfield is relatively organised and if so they go and try to reclaim the ball. It sounds simple, but it is a good cue for the rest of the team to stabalise, regroup and maintain a good structure when they are defending, without getting caught open. It doesn’t all rely on winning back possession either, as the high pressing serves to hurry the opposition into making longer passes, whilst also leaving the two strikers high up the pitch for counter-attacking. Meanwhile, the midfield tend to stay in a compact diamond shape which can congest the centre of the pitch.

Centre-back Gamberini spoke during an interview that the Chievo back-line know defence starts from the front, and that the balance of play and the resulting movement of the rest of the team depend on how easy it is for the opposition to break out of their own half with the ball. He said that ‘closing doors’ and positioning is relative to the work of his own team’s forwards. Its an important concept, and although many people acknowledge ‘building from the back’ and working the ball out of defence, through midfield to the strikers in order to create chances on goal – we don’t tend to think of the reverse for the defending team. Maran’s style does really well at targeting the correct areas on the pitch as to where his side need to put the high-intensity in to try and win the ball back, taking into account things like the flow of the game, how many men are out of position and how expansive the play has become in the preceding attack.

2014/15 Season Overview

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European qualification:

– West Ham gain additional Europa League qualifying spot through finishing top of the English fair play table

– Sampdoria currently take rivals’ Genoa’s Europa League qualifying spot due to financial regulations

Notable occurrences:

– All-round lower scoring season compared to previous one across all 4 leagues

– More card shown compared to previous season, around 8.5% more yellows

– Dominance of Barcelona & Real Madrid, particularly in goalscoring. Also the superiority of the champions of the other 3 (Chelsea, Bayern & Juve) over their respective leagues

– Close relegation battles in 3 out of the 4 leagues, coming down to the last day. Reasonably unified figure across all 4 leagues of around 35-38 points to stay up.

– Augsburg making Europa League football finishing 5th, despite losing 15/34 games. Dortmund also making the Europa League qualifiers, despite being bottom at one stage around Christmas. The resurgence of Wolfsburg, and contrasting fortunes of Hamburg who managed to stay up through a dramatic late goal and extra-time winner against Karlsruher.

– Lazio’s second half of the season, challenging Roma for 2nd place, only to lose out in the Derby. The poor display from both Milan clubs, Inzaghi’s side in particular, both missing out on European places. The financial struggles and effective collapse of Parma, under the mismanagement and neglect of their owner.

– The form of Valencia and Sevilla, pushing Atletico for 3rd, with the former gaining the 4th Champions League spot.

– Chelsea’s dominance of the Premier League. Manchester United’s return to the top 4 at the expense of Liverpool. Newcastle’s incredible poor run of form, almost resulting in their relegation. Aston Villa’s inability to score goals for extended periods of time. Harry Kane hype.

24th September midweek picks

Malaga vs Barcelona : Barcelona -1 @1.85

Barca are yet to concede a goal after winning their opening 4 games, and come into this match off the back of a 5-0 win away from home. Malaga on the other hand have struggled somewhat, and will not see this as a good time to be playing the league leaders, 3 games without a win. It is difficult to see the home side conceding, especially not more than 1 goal, and you’d expect them to score at least 2 themselves with the likes of Messi and Neymar ready to start in attack.

Dortmund vs Stuttgart : Dortmund -1 @2.00

Stuttgart have been really poor this season so far, with only 1 point. They come to the Signal Iduna at a time when the home side will want to bounce back from their loss to Mainz and will probably field a slightly stronger team, with Immobile & Kagawa looking for starts. I think evens is a good price for a Dortmund team who is very capable of scoring goals against the side who are bottom of the table and lost the last 3 by 2 goals.

Parma vs Roma : Roma @2.05

Roma are yet to concede a goal in their opening three games, winning them all, although maybe not in supremely confident fashion. They will be slightly light at the back with a couple of injury doubts, however they have strength in depth now – more so than last season – and should cope. Parma have been hit and miss so far, gaining their first win against Chievo last time out, but conceding 5 against Milan and losing to newly promoted Cesena. Their main attacking threat is Cassano, and the pace of Biabiany (who is missing tonight). Paletta will also miss out, and the home side may struggle to contain Roma as Garcia’s men could dominate the ball. Parma always have the potential for an upset, but evens seems good value for Roma here.

Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest : Forest @6.00

Spurs have been poor recently, without a win in 4 games, and suffering an embarrassing 1-0 home defeat to West Brom on the weekend, with only 1 shot on target. They will likely field a weaker side tonight, and will not go into the game with any momentum. Forest, on the other hand, will probably put out a strong team and look to cause an upset here. Despite their 0-0 draw with fellow Championship high flyers Millwall on the weekend, the away side are unbeaten this season and have shown their goalscoring prowess. With forest @6.00 here, it seems like great value for a team who despite being a division below, are playing good football and will be more than up for the fight here this evening.

 

31st August Serie A

Cesena vs Parma @2.35

Parma had a decent time of things last season, and will be pushing for a European place or at the very least a solid top-half finish. Francesco Lodi will be looking to make his first start for the away side after his summer move from Catania. He showed real threat in the playmaking role last season, despite a poor campaign for Catania whom he rejoined halfway through the season. Lodi can also offer a good set piece delivery, but will be in contention for a starting place with Jorquera who comes in. Belfodil could start up front, and although found goals hard to come by at Livorno to say the least, is a decent striker on his day. The main threats will probably come from wide, with Cassano drifting in and becoming a creative influence, and Biabiany on the other wing offering a completely different threat of pace. Paletta and Lucarelli are solid at the back, and newly promoted Cesena may struggle to control the possession and move into the opposition third to trouble them. The home side have a seemingly stronger squad than last season, but will most likely take time to settle and work together. They are heavily reliant on loans, being on a cash-strapped budget. Its yet to be seen what tinkering will be done with the starting line-up, but Marilungo could be the danger up-front. Their defence could be have a strong Atalanta contingent, with loan signings coming in from Bergamo, for their sake I hope it doesn’t prove to be a makeshift and shakey opener in-front of the home fans.

I would favour Parma here, who will be setting their sights far higher than the home side this season. On paper Cesena look kind of thrown together, and may take time to adapt to life back in Serie A. Parma have a solid unit and, although not adding to their squad too much in the summer, have retained their main players from last season and would expect to worry Cesena and get off to a good start. The price for a Parma win seems good and I think probably too favourable to the home side due to the unpredictable nature of a new team coming up. But like I said previously, I just don’t think Cesena have the resources to trouble Parma too much at the moment. Probably wouldn’t go for overs on the goals front, purely because the home side may put up a solid defence and frustrate Parma, but it is possible that Cesena will be disorganised and/or struggle with Biabiany’s pace. Overall I’d say Parma are a good pick on what is a relatively tough day of fixtures on Serie A gameweek 1.

Udinese @1.80 vs Empoli

Udinese are another side who will hope to push up into the top half of the table and challenge for European places this season, after struggling at times in the previous campaign. Antonio di Natale will lead the line once more, and looks in good form if pre-season is anything to go by. He will most likely be joined by Thereau, who is similarly good on the ball and was a pretty decent partner for Paloschi at Chievo last season. There is the potential for a partnership here in Muriel’s absence from the starting line-up, which should be welcomed by di Natale who looked isolated at times last season. They also signed Panagiotis Kone from relegated Bologna, who can play an attacking role from midfield, out wide or further forward. Empoli look a much more inexperienced side to be going into a Serie A campaign. They will probably start with Tavano up-front, offering the main goal threat after scoring 23 goals in Serie B last season. But the veteran 35 year old will likely miss his strike partner Massimo Maccarone through a slight injury. Verdi could also be a force for the away side going forward, although it is yet to be seen if the youngster’s tricky style will live up to its potential in the top flight.

I’ve picked out this game a decent value for an opening day game, with Udinese notably good at home in recent times. Empoli look like they may struggle with Serie A to begin with, and are not up to the same sort of standard that we saw from the Serie B winners of last season Palermo. Udinese weren’t free-scoring last season and still rely heavily on the goalscoring exploits of di Natale, but I think that they have steadies their team more so for this coming season than in the past where they have become used to losing their stars in the transfer market. Thus, again, I would hesitate to bet on goals in this game and there is a slightly unpredictable nature around Udinese with the arrival of new manager Stramaccioni. However, I think the home side have more than enough about them to see off newly promoted Empoli here.

Other games

AC Milan take on Lazio at the San Siro, in what may prove to be a close encounter. Milan should have the much awaited return of El Shaarawy to aid them this season, and he could be involved from the right. This may be Milan’s main avenue of attack with Abate going forward also, probably causing Radu problems but potentially leaving themselves exposed to Candreva. The home side could go with Pazzini and Menez up front, which won’t set Milan fans’ world alight, but may be dangerous in the box if they can get the service from out wide. Mexes and de Sciglio are rules out through suspension, and Lazio have Marchetti seemingly out through injury. Its a tough one to call, with Milan’s strength and team cohesion difficult to gauge under new boss Inzaghi and a pretty depleted team sheet it has to be said. On paper, its pretty evenly matched in all areas. Its the sort of game you want to avoid on the first day of the season. Under 2.5 goals might be an option though, with neither side looking spectacular in the attacking department, although the price around 1.8 isn’t hugely attractive.

Torino and Inter face each other at the Stadio Olimpico in what also should be a pretty tough game for both sides. Inter look stronger on paper, particularly with Torino losing their top marksman Ciro Immobile in the summer, however Ventura’s side are notably good at home – proving very tough to beat in the past couple of seasons. If it was at the San Siro, I would probably be on Inter, but it seems foolish to bet against Torino at the Olimpico this early on. The home side have a few players missing, but they should still be strong and able to counter well, with the likes of Cerci cutting in from the right aided by Darmian, and Quagliarella taking up his spot up top. Kovacic, Icardi, Hernanes could all start and provide attacking threat for Inter, and their wing-backs Nagatomo and Jonathan should be bombing forward as usual. This could lead to an open game, but it could also get congested in the middle of the pitch if the ball is constantly played down the wings without the play being stretched methodically. I’d probably favour a draw here, but again its a tough one this early on in the season.

Napoli have a trip to the Luigi Ferraris to play Genoa to look forward to on the opening day. Odds of a Napoli win are around evens, which quite a few people will probably go for here. Genoa have been busy in the summer transfer window, notably bringing in Pinilla who will probably start in Matri’s absence and Perotti who could provide a threat on the wing. Napoli will be pretty much unchanged from last season, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but they will be on a bit of a downer having missed out on Champions League qualification through the playoffs against Bilbao in the week. I’d be slightly more hesitant of betting on Napoli than most. Genoa have a reasonable team, and Pinilla can score goals up front. They are unpredictable in their approach, and may take time to gel together as a squad, but they will fancy a home game and it is yet to be seen how the visitors will come out and tackle this game after their big disappointment in Europe. If I had to choose, I would say Napoli to win, but I think it has potential upset written on it.

Verona travel to Bergamo to play Atalanta in a game which should be another close call. Atalanta are another side with a reputation of being hard to beat at home, so Verona will have a job on their hands. The home side are relatively unchanged from last season – their retain Denis up front, supported most likely by Moralez. Bonaventura, who impressed in spells last season, will probably start from the right and look to be their main creative threat along with Cigarini from midfield. Hellas have lost Iturbe and Romulo, and look to Christodoulopoulos coming in to hopefully offer support to Toni from out wide. It remains to be seen how Verona can cope without their main stars from the start of last season when they began the campaign so well, but you’d have to say they may struggle. However they are capable of surprises and Luca Toni can pop up with a goal on many an occasion. If pushed, I’d go for a home win here at around evens.

Newly promoted Palermo start their 2014/15 campaign off at home to Sampdoria after they ran away with the Serie B title last season. Unfortunately for them, it looks like their main star Hernandez is on the move, so Dybala is favourite to start up top. Neither team have really changed to much from last season, with the visitors missing Bergessio. They will most likely also be without Gabbiadini. Sansone impressed at times in 2013/14 and will probably be partnered by Okaka in attack with Eder from he right although he could be deployed up top. Krsticic and Palombo look set to continue in the middle of the pitch. Sampdoria look slightly better on paper, although their inconsistency and the fact that Palermo are back in Serie A playing at home could mean a close game and probably one to avoid from a betting perspective.

Serie A Review 2013/14

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Title Winners – Juventus (102 points)
Top Scorer – Ciro Immobile (22 goals)
Champions League qualification – Juventus, Roma, Napoli
Europa League qualification – Fiorentina, Inter, Torino*
Relegation – Livorno, Bologna, Catania

*Parma took 6th place ahead of Torino, but are banned from European football next season as it stands due to financial regulations. There is a chance that their ban will be overturned.

Pre-season odds in August 2013:
Title winners – Juventus @5/6, AC Milan @5/1, Napoli @8/1, Inter @14/1
Relegation – Livorno @10/11, Sassuolo @20/19, Verona @11/8
Top goalscorers – Balotelli @3/1, Higuain @5/1, Di Natale @8/1

The start of the campaign was dominated by Roma, after winning ten games on the bounce, it seemed like they had established themselves as genuine title contenders. Their challenge continued throughout the season, only to be outdone by the ever-consistent Juve. Although the champions ended 17 points clear, for the most part the scudetto was a two-horse race. New signings Strootman, Ljajic and Gervinho all impressed, but for me the stand out performances came from Mehdi Benatia and his defensive partner Leandro Castan. Their defence was rock-solid, conceding 25 goals in the season, and only 1 in the first 10 games. Pjanic and Totti were pulling strings, particularly in the early parts of the season, with the latter on 6 assists after 6 games.

The gap in quality (and points until the latter stages) between fourth and fifth in Serie A was especially noticeable. Napoli had pretty much established themselves as 3rd place candidates from the start, with Fiorentina hoping to mount a challenge for that 3rd and final Champions League place. Alas, Montella’s men never really got on a par with Rafa’s side, and although beating them 1-0 at the San Paolo in March thanks to a late goal, they were destined for the Europa League.

The struggle for the other Europa League places for 4th, 5th and 6th was contested throughout the season by a number of teams. Parma, Torino, Inter were joined in the race by Milan, Lazio, Verona and Atalanta. Both Milan sides arguably underachieved, particularly AC, with their slightly ‘transitional’ and makeshift squad in the wake of the departure of many of their more experienced stars and a long injury list. Balotelli, when available looked slightly under-par at times and, particularly towards the end of the season, was in poor form. A notable absence was El Shaarwary, who was out for the majority of a season in which could have been his break-through year. Inter faired slightly better, with only 1 loss in their opening 15 games. However, their problem was the sheer number of draws (15), and they inevitably fell short of a challenge to the top four despite a pretty solid campaign.

Parma and Torino impressed, in what was a season that helped enhance their reputation and make a push for European participation. Parma were helped largely by the 17 game unbeaten run they went on in the middle of the season. The Gialloblu had a reasonably strong defence, with Lucarelli having a good season and Paletta earning a call up to Italy’s World Cup squad along with Marco Parolo and Antonio Cassano who had a fantastic influence on his team’s season. Torino, after a shakey start, based they success largely on their home form once again. The attacking talents of Alessio Cerci and Serie A top scorer Ciro Immobile helped their cause greatly, earning both of them call-ups to Italy’s national squad for the World Cup, alongside the uncapped Matteo Darmian in defence.

Two sides that impressed me this season were Verona and Atalanta. Verona, being a newly promoted side, were never really expecting to push for Europe, but were hovering around 4th in the table a couple of months in. Their challenge faded away towards the end of the campaign, but they still achieved a respectable 10th place in Serie A. Stand out personnel in their season included 37 year old Italian veteran Luca Toni, who netted 20 league goals, as well as Argentian winger Juan Iturbe. Jorginho earned himself a January move to Napoli after a fantastic start to the season, which inevitably damaged Hellas’ season. Atalanta wouldn’t have sprung out to many as having an outstanding season, but I was impressed with the way they fought at times. Their season was distinctly average at best, until they went on a run of 6 wins in March to ignite their quest for Europe… which died a death shortly after. All the same, I thought that Bonaventura and Consigli might have done enough for a World Cup call up, Cigarini was impressive also.

The relegation battle was reasonably hotly contested. Sassuolo looked doomed from the start, but then started to turn their fortunes around after a 7-0 thrashing from Inter, they switched their formation and began to climb away from the bottom of the table. Sansone and Berardi were notable performers, and their side finished the season well, Berardi with 3 spectacular performances in the season – two hat-tricks against Sampdoria and Fiorentina, and four goals against Milan. Catania were a side who struggled throughout, with a ridiculous away record of not winning until the final day, drawing 2 others and losing 16. They made a fight for it at the end, including a remarkable 4-1 win against Roma, but it came too late. Livorno lost 9 of their last 10, and Bologna only won 1 of their last 15.

All in all, I think that Serie A has done itself some favours in enhancing its reputation on the European stage this season, despite being overtaken by Portugal in UEFA’s coefficient rankings. Juve’s disappointing exit in the Champions League groups stage along with Napoli did them no favours, and AC Milan fell at Diego Simeone’s Atletico sword in the first knockout round. However, there have been some incredible performances this season – notable players for me, aside the ones already mentioned, include: Antonio di Natale who scored 17 goals and made 29 starts at 36 years old, including a final day hat-trick against Sampdoria. Radja Nainggolan who had a fantastic start to the season with Cagliari, before his move to Roma in January. His work rate and energy in midfield is incredible and he covered fantastically for the loss to injury of Kevin Strootman. Juan Cuadrado with 11 goals showed his versatility by playing a number of different positions and always providing the pace and attacking threat that Fiorentina needed on the break. It’ll be exciting to see him at the World Cup for Colombia.

Statistics:
Total goals: 1035
Penalties scored: 102
Clean sheets: 218
Minutes per goal: Mattia Destro (91 mins), Giuseppe Rossi (96 mins), Ciro Immobile (119 mins)
Pass completion: Matias Fernandez (92.8%), Emiliano Moretti (91.7%), Kamil Glik (91.7%), Nigel de Jong (91.4%), Andrea Barzagli (91.2%)
Average passes per game: Daniele de Rossi (73.8), Andrea Pirlo (69), Giorgio Chiellini (68.3), David Pizarro (67.4), Daniele Conti (67.3)
Key passes per game: Antonio Cassano (2.7), Alessandro Diamanti (2.6), Borja Valero (2.5), Francesco Totti (2.5), Luca Cigarini (2.4)
Clean sheets: Morgan de Sanctis (20), Gianluigi Buffon (18), Samir Handanovic (13), Neto (12), Mattia Perin (11)